The home Copa America campaign for the United States has taken an unanticipated and difficult turn. At first, it was thought that Monday’s Group C final versus Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay would be a simple fight for first place because neither Panama nor Bolivia—ranked 43rd and 84th in the world, respectively—were expected to present a serious danger. But Gregg Berhalter’s team is in a dangerous place after a shocking 2-1 loss to Panama; in order to advance, they must defeat one of the best teams in South America.
Following Timothy Weah’s early red card in the match against Panama, the USA lost control of the game, which significantly changed their trajectory in the tournament. This dismal outcome has brought attention to unrealized potential, hesitant attacks, and a slow rate of game adaptation. Supporters of England are familiar with these problems, having witnessed the Three Lions struggle through the Euro 2024 knockout stages.
The USA had a 64.5% chance of making it to the final eight before the competition started, according to the Opta supercomputer. But after losing on Thursday, their chances of moving on have decreased to 51%. Now, a win versus Uruguay is essential since a loss would mean Bolivia would have to hope that Bolivia’s match against Panama goes well.
Even though the USA may have won the group, their most likely finish is now third (49%), which would be a major setback in a competition that is considered as a lead-up to the 2026 World Cup held in the country. In their opening 2-0 victory over Bolivia, the USA demonstrated their supremacy with 35 touches in the opponent’s end and 20 shots totaling 2.51 anticipated goals (xG). But their next performance against Panama undermined this impressive start.
The USA were put in a tough situation when Weah was sent off early for pushing Amir Murillo’s head out of petty jealousy. However, four minutes after Weah’s departure, Folarin Balogun scored a wonderful goal to raise spirits. However, similar to England in their opening Euro 2024 matches, the USA gave up the lead quickly after, as Cesar Blackman of Panama equalized.
The dominance of Panama, especially in possession, was concerning. They had the greatest possession share of any CONCACAF side in a Copa America game at the end of the game (74%), dating back to 2011. With just three passes into Panama’s penalty area from the 19th minute onward, the USA’s passing accuracy was a miserable 59.4%, the lowest of the tournament thus far.
Despite being commended for their aggressive style of play during the 2022 World Cup, Berhalter’s team seemed uneasy when forced to exert control over the game. They only managed six shots against Panama, who set a record for the fewest attempts faced in a Copa America game. The previous lows came in 2016 with 12 shots versus Argentina and Bolivia.
Even with Giovanni Reyna replacing defender Cameron Carter-Vickers in Berhalter’s lineup, Panama’s momentum continued unabated. Tim Ream was replaced by Josh Sargent in the 86th minute, but it was too little, too late, as Jose Fajardo’s close-range goal sealed Panama’s victory.
The USA’s issues were made worse by their missed opportunities, especially Ricardo Pepi’s header that was saved at 1-1. Unlike his peers who have all found the net at least once, Pepi has yet to score despite having the greatest total xG of 2.27 in the competition. Berhalter has come under more fire for his choice to replace Pepi for Balogun, who has been one of the few players who has consistently performed.
Balogun, the USA’s great victory upon abandoning England as their ally, has not been fully utilized. Compared to his Ligue 1 performance from the previous season, where he averaged over eight touches per ninety minutes, he has only had eight touches in the penalty area this tournament. Balogun may be on the sidelines unless Uruguay plays with more control and fluidity, which is something Berhalter thinks would happen given their expansive style.
There is a lot of pressure on the USA when they play Uruguay. The USA has no margin for mistake in the Euro 2024 group stages, in contrast to England who have made it through. Whether Berhalter’s team can salvage their Copa America campaign or if they will have to make an early and disappointing exit will be determined by the outcome of the next game.
Source – BeinSports
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